The arrival of post-Putin Russia

Key points

+ Russia’s March 2018 presidential election will mark the arrival of the post-Putin era in Russian domestic politics.

+ Following the vote, Vladimir Putin will focus on shaping the new era, in a process he views not as a search for a successor but as a transfer of power from his generation to the Putin generation (comprising politicians who came of age during, and have been shaped by, his rule).

+ Meanwhile, the behaviour of Russia’s major political and economic players will be defined not by the president’s presence in the system but by the expectation of his departure.

+ Despite widespread expectations that the regime will undergo a major transformation, it is unlikely that post-Putin Russia will be an anti-Putin Russia.

+ Moscow will likely maintain its current foreign policy objectives even after Putin’s exit from the Kremlin, but without him Russia will probably be a weak international player.

European Council on Foreign Relations: Commentary, 20.03.18: And Now What? Russian Foreign Policy in Putin’s Fourth Term http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_and_now_what_russian_foreign_policy_in_putins_fourth_term

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