The Brexit Scenarios: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship

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Series Details No.7, June 2016
Publication Date June 2016
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This publication brings together the papers presented at the workshop 'Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship', held at CIDOB on 20 May 20 2016 and co-organised with the London School of Economics’ European Politics and Policy blog (LSE EUROPP).

The workshop analysed the scenarios of the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership that will take place on 23 June 2016 and discussed, among other issues, the negotiations between the British government and the EU, the referendum campaign, the internal developments in the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU and the scenarios that might prevail after the referendum.

This publication presents three scenarios based on whether the UK will stay in the EU ('Bremain'), whether it will leave the EU following some form of agreement ('soft Brexit') or whether it leaves it abruptly ('harsh Brexit'). The authors cover the economic, political, social and geopolitical effects of each scenario, attempting to devise the new UK-EU relationship in case these scenarios materialise. They pay particular attention to the political dynamics in the EU following the Brexit referendum and the effects on the European project, as well as on the future of the UK.

+ Authors Scenario #1: Bremain by Stuart A. Brown and Tena Prelec

+ Author Scenario #2: A soft Brexit by Swati Dhingra

+ Author Scenario #3: A harsh Brexit by Tim Oliver

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Related Links
Blog: LSE EuroppBlog, 09.06.16: Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship: A ‘soft’ Brexit
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union
Politico, 08.06.16: France’s plan for a bloody Brexit
ESO: Background information: The seven blunders: why Brexit would be harder than Brexiters think
ESO: Background information: Policy Paper: The process for withdrawing from the European Union (Cm 9216)
European Parliament: European Parliamentary Research Service: Briefing, 2016: Article 50 TEU: Withdrawal of a Member State from the EU
Politico, 10.06.16: ‘In is in. Out is out,’ Wolfgang Schäuble tells UK
Spiegel Online International, 10.06.16: 'Out Is Out': Schäuble Warns of Single Market Access in Event of Brexit
Clingendael: Opinion, 25.05.16: Brexit: the beginning of the end of the EU?
ECFR: Podcast, June 2016: ECFR’s World in 30 Minutes: The European consequences of the British referendum
EurActiv, 10.06.16: Schäuble: Brexit would see UK leave single market
Blog: Open Europe, 13.06.16: European leaders hammer post-Brexit uncertainty
VoxEurop, 14.06.16: If Britain is clever, it will remain a member of the EU (excerpts of articles from Der Standard, Rzeczpospolita, La Repubblica and five other European news sources)
Blog: Open Europe 24.06.16: How to leave the EU?
Blog: LSE EuroppBlog, 27.06.16: Why the UK must trigger Article 50 immediately

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