The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

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Series Details No.2 (March 2016)
Publication Date March 2016
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For over two years, a research team at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been studying the likely impact of the UK leaving the European Union. This report published in March 2016 focused on the impact of ‘Brexit’ through changing trade patterns. Under ‘optimistic’ assumptions, there is a fall in national income of 1.3% (about £850 per household). Under ‘pessimistic’ assumptions, this doubles to 2.6%. When the dynamic effects of higher trade costs on productivity are included, the cost may rise to between 6.3% and 9.5% in the long run.

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Blog: LSE EuroppBlog, 22.03.16: The question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union
ESO: Background information: Life after BREXIT: What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

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