The end of the honeymoon: The increasing differentiation of (long-term) unemployment risks in Europe

Abstract
This article discusses the changing social distribution of unemployment and long-term unemployment risks during the current financial and economic crisis. These risks are interpreted as the result of three different, overlapping forms of labour market segmentation: first, the institutionally stabilized polarization between labour market insiders and outsiders; second, the occupational dualization of high- and low-skilled employees and occupations; and third, the marginalization of disadvantaged social groups.

On the basis of European Union-Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data for 24 European countries (2005–2012), it can be shown that (long-term) unemployment risks increase especially for low-skilled persons and occupations, single parents, migrants and disabled persons. Women, older and permanently employed persons are relatively less affected by short-term unemployment but more affected by long-term unemployment. Hence, the current crisis strengthens the occupational and social dualization of labour markets, endangering the inclusiveness and long-term growth potential of the European economy and societies.

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