The EU in a globalised world

Is the European Union a political power to be reckoned with or just a big trade bloc? The world’s actual and aspiring powers have different views on this.

American and Russian experts are more sceptical about the EU’s big-power status than their counterparts from emerging powers.

John Glenn, director of foreign policy at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, DC, says that "the EU aspires to be a global actor but in many ways it is more regional". For Fyodor Lukjanov, editor of Russian magazine Global Affairs, "the EU doesn’t matter as a pole today - economically yes, politically, not at all, and militarily, it doesn’t exist".

M. K. Lokesh, India’s deputy head of mission to the EU, calls the Union a "major power in economic terms". Lokesh says that India "wants Europe to play a positive role in global affairs as and when they are ready to do so". But, he adds, "European evolution is a very slow process".

Yet China’s ambassador to the EU, Chengyuan Guan, gives the EU greater importance. "The EU is already becoming a powerful bloc…[playing] a more and more important role on both the regional and the global scene," he says.

The EU’s ability or failure to project a solid common foreign policy is a recurrent theme.

C. Boyden Gray, the US’ ambassador to the EU, says that the Union is an important political player. "It’s our most important ally," he says. He mentions the Middle East, Kosovo, Russia and China, as areas where the US and EU share common concerns. "Sometimes," Gray adds, "we are closer on political issues than economic ones, where competition comes into play."

The EU’s ambassador to the US, John Bruton, thinks that the world’s sole superpower "is now waking up to the existence of the EU…because of the success of the euro and of enlargement…and also because the EU is strong [in] regulatory [terms]".

But Glenn thinks that while the US takes the EU’s economic power seriously, on foreign policy "the US…is intrigued by the prospect of a common EU policy but recognises the inevitable reality that member states have got such different national interests".

Garimella Subramaniam, a writer for leading Indian daily, The Hindu, emphasises that the EU is perceived as a lesser player on the global stage, because it lacks military power. "In geopolitical terms, the EU is, notwithstanding its diplomatic clout, regarded not as a force to reckon with, unlike the US whose military muscle-flexing and dominance appeals to Indian elites. [Even] the fact that the EU is India’s largest single trading partner is not very visible," says Subramaniam.

Rajendra Jain, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, disagrees. "India no longer regards the EU as a mere trading bloc, but increasingly as an emerging actor with a growing political profile in world politics," he says.

But in Moscow, Lukjanov thinks that the EU missed its moment: "Seven years ago the whole world viewed the EU as a fabulous model…but now it looks like the whole world bypassed that model. A great power model is the new situation…and the EU…is to some extent out of the picture."

Rose Gottemoeller, chair of the Carnegie Endowment’s Moscow Center, says that despite the "Russian rhetoric" trying "to play down the importance of the EU", Russia’s political class recognises the EU’s importance. "But Russia, in the last ten years, still thinks it can gain advantage by playing off individual member states against the EU [as a whole]," she adds.

• Multipolar world

Despite the Union’s geopolitical role being talked down, many emerging powers hope that the EU can contribute to the development of a multipolar order, which would end the dominance of the American superpower. "We want the globe not to be unipolar…and [think] the EU can play one pole in a multipolar world," says Lokesh.

In Beijing, Xueliang Ding, head of the Carnegie Endowment’s China Programme, says that China hopes for the emergence of a multipolar world but admits this isn’t the situation today given US military dominance and EU military weakness.

"The EU’s military and political capabilities don’t give Europe a global domination," Ding says. "But such limited power gives the EU enormous potential to play a more friendly, more civilised, more neutral role." And, says Ding, when the US is in trouble with other regional powers, "Europe can perform a very important peace promotion role".

Ambassador Guan says that the EU and China have common concerns on international terrorism, tackling poverty and climate change and strengthening the UN.

Jürgen Haacke, an east Asia expert at the London School of Economics, says that although "China isn’t saying [directly] they would want the EU to provide a balance against the US", it is clear that it does not want to confront a unified Western bloc.

But in Washington, Bruton thinks that the US and the EU are fairly united. "In more recent times, there’s been more emphasis on the EU being the [US’] ally than providing an alternative way of looking at things," he says.

But Bruton points to the EU’s more aggressive position on climate change, an issue which, he says, "the US seems ready to leave in the realm of declarations". He also emphasises the greater urgency Europeans see in resolving the Israel-Palestine dispute. And on Iran, Bruton says, "there’s agreement on the diplomatic approach, but after that…" - a reference to disagreements over possible military intervention.

Yet Alberta Sbragia, director of the EU centre at Pittsburgh University in the US, says that the EU’s efforts to solve the crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme helped consecrate the Union as an important foreign policy actor. "Iran is where I first notice [American] recognition of the EU as a foreign policy player," Sbragia says, adding that convergence on Iran has overcome US-EU rancour over the Iraq war.

But Sbragia says that American elites are divided over whether they actually want to see a stronger EU, especially on military issues. "One group would see it as a global actor trying to challenge NATO and in some vague sense trying to establish separate military powers."

• Soft power

Emphasising the EU’s "virtues and values of ‘soft power’", Professor Rajendra Jain says that "India regards both soft and hard power as essential because it lives in a tough neighbourhood".

And much of the EU’s soft power comes back to economics. Boyden Gray says: "[EU] soft power leadership on climate change and the authority they have comes from having the largest internal consumer market in the world…the US hopes that the EU will continue to deepen the integration of the single market."

But some are less happy at the EU’s attempts to spread its values globally. Jain says: "Postmodern Europe tends to have a missionary attitude about its values." And Lokesh emphasises that, while India supports human rights, it does not "want to give prescriptive solutions from outside" to problems in a country.

In Moscow, Lukjanov says: "The EU idea that they can project soft power failed…there is a feeling of being taught by the EU for unclear reasons. The EU still sees Russia as a big Poland, but Russia has re-emerged as a great power."

But in China, Xueliang Ding, sees EU soft power more positively: "In the long run, putting human rights as a centre piece of European foreign policy gives enormous respect to the EU from peoples, groups and regions who have suffered human rights abuses." And, says Ding, Chinese President Hu Jintao’s speech to the five-yearly party congress this October mentioned human rights. "That’s very hard to imagine without the EU and America, and distinguished groups promoting those values," he says.

But in a world of tough geopolitics, some wonder if the EU is really up to entering the fray. For Glenn, "the EU and military force is a very ambivalent place as the EU believes it’s a post-sovereignty institution". And Lukjanov says that problems in EU-Russia communication arise because "Russia’s view on everything is just very geopolitical while the EU as an entity is trying to avoid geopolitics".

If the Union is to increase its political clout in the world, it will not only have to speak more convincingly with a single voice, but also take a more serious geopolitical approach to the emerging world order.

• Kirsty Hughes is an analyst and a freelance journalist based in London.

Is the European Union a political power to be reckoned with or just a big trade bloc? The world’s actual and aspiring powers have different views on this.

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