The everyday and the existential: how Clinton and Trump challenge transatlantic relations

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Series Details October 2016
Publication Date October 2016
ISBN 978-1-910118-90-0
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Summary of key points of this Policy Memo:

+ The transatlantic relationship is likely to face difficult challenges whatever the result of the US election.

+ If Trump wins he will launch a revolutionary presidency — pulling back from NATO and other security guarantees, undermining key parts of the global free trade regime and building closer relations with strong-man leaders than allies.

+ Even if Hillary is elected the transatlantic relationship could still face difficult albeit more everyday challenges. Her poor relations with Moscow, exacerbated by gender issues, could threaten transatlantic unity on Russia.

+ Europe would be foolish not to learn lessons from the experience of Trump’s candidacy. Trump represents only an extreme version of a growing feeling in the United States that, in a time of relative decline, the country is getting a raw deal from its allies.

+ The EU should not be complacent in assuming that the transatlantic relationship will continue as it is and should begin to take more responsibility for its own defence and build resilience against a potentially more self-interested US.

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Related Links
ESO: Background information: Why Hillary Clinton wouldn’t be a foreign policy hawk as president
ESO: Background information: US Election Note: Defence Policy After 2016
ESO: Background information: Perspectives on transatlantic cooperation: Security and defence - Achieving efficiency and resilience
Euro|Topics: Debates, October 2016: Final TV debate between Clinton and Trump
ECFR: Fear and loathing on the road to the US elections, October 2016

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