The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries

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Series Details Number 102
Publication Date July 2019
ISBN 978-92-79-77439-3
ISSN 2443-8022
EC KC-BD-18-029-EN-N
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This paper introduces the Global Multi-country (GM) model, an estimated multi-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy. We present the model in 3-region configurations for Euro area (EA) countries that include an individual EA Member State, the rest of the EA (REA), and the rest of the world (RoW). We provide and compare estimates of this model structure for the four largest EA countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). The novelty of the paper is the estimation of ex-ante identical country models on the basis of a unified information set, which allows for clean crosscountry comparison of parameter estimates and drivers of economic dynamics. The paper also provides an overview of applications of the GM model such as the structural interpretation of business cycle dynamics, the contribution to the European Commission’s economic forecast, the scenario analysis and policy counterfactuals.

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