| Author (Person) | Olszanski, Tadeusz A., Wilk, Andrzej |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) |
| Series Title | OSW Analyses |
| Series Details | 10.02.16 |
| Publication Date | 10/02/2016 |
| Content Type | Journal | Series | Blog |
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In Minsk on 12 February 2015, the Presidents of Ukraine, Russia and France and the Chancellor of Germany signed a document designed to resolve the armed conflict in the east of Ukraine. One year later, the Minsk agreement is dead, as none of its points has been fully implemented. Although fighting on a larger scale has stopped, the full ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the buffer zone never took place. Nor were the political conditions complied with that would have made it possible to reintegrate the Donets Basin, currently under de facto Russian control, with the rest of Ukraine. The two sides had different interpretations of the agreement’s main points. Russia believed that a prerequisite for agreement is the introduction by Ukraine of decentralisation reforms, which would give special status to part of the Donbass, while Ukraine was of the view that the implementation of the document must be accompanied not only by an unconditional and permanent ceasefire, but also by the restoration of control over the entire Ukrainian-Russian border to Kyiv. The current situation should be seen as a stalemate, and the difference of opinions as insurmountable. At the same time, an escalation of military action is unlikely, which means that in the foreseeable future the conflict is likely to remain in its present, not fully frozen state, with all the negative consequences that entails for the Donbass, the rest of Ukraine, and Russia. |
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| Source Link | http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2016-02-10/minsk-agreement-one-year-shadow-boxing |
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| Countries / Regions | Russia, Ukraine |
