The prospects of the EU enlargement to Western Balkans, AD 2011

The report assesses the perspectives of the EU enlargement to Western Balkans as seen in 2011. The future EU enlargement will most likely be different from its past experiences to accommodate new member states and will most probably will proceed in a case-by-case fashion, accepting one country at a time, rather than continue with its traditional group based enlargement. Croatia may set a precedent for future in this case. The speed of future enlargements will mostly depend on the candidates’ internal capacity to build effective administrations, solve or at least diminish intensity of bilateral conflicts, and indeed convince their populations about the prospects of EU accession. An assessment of the candidates’ ability to take over the acquis communautaire in the most difficult areas of agriculture and justice indicate that their membership may not be likely before 2020, hence it would come about under the post-2020 multiannual financial framework. Croatia successfully concluding its accession talks with the EU should be used as a case for a public awareness campaign, mainly for the EU public opinions, about the benefits and prospects of EU enlargement.

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