The Swedish government is set to lose the 2014 general election despite the country’s economic performance

Sweden will hold a general election on 14 September. With one month to go until the vote, Anders Sundell presents two distinct forecasting models on the results: one based on the country’s economic performance and one based on opinion polling data. The results show that if the vote reflected Sweden’s economic performance, it would be expected that Fredrik Reinfeldt’s governing coalition would receive enough support to remain in power. However the opinion polling provides a different picture, suggesting that the government is in line to lose the election despite the economy.

• Primary Source

ESO: Background information: Swedish general election, 2014 http://www.europeansources.info/record/swedish-general-election-2014/

Aftonbladet, 22.08.14: Sweden's jobless can't rely on PM (via Euro|Topics) http://www.eurotopics.net/en/home/presseschau/archiv/aehnliche/archiv_article/ARTICLE149071-Sweden-s-jobless-can-t-rely-on-PM

EurActiv, 25.08.14: Centre-left parties set to win Swedish elections http://www.euractiv.com/sections/elections/centre-left-parties-set-win-swedish-elections-307942

Blog: Open Europe, 27.08.14: Sweden set for a lurch to the left - and further gains for anti-immigration party http://www.openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/sweden-set-for-lurch-to-left-and.html

Göteborgs-Posten, 12.09.14: Swedish government better than its reputation (via Euro|Topics) http://www.eurotopics.net/en/home/presseschau/archiv/aehnliche/archiv_article/ARTICLE150265-Swedish-government-better-than-its-reputation

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