| Author (Corporate) | International Crisis Group |
|---|---|
| Series Title | Europe Briefing |
| Series Details | No.73, April 2015 |
| Publication Date | 01/04/2015 |
| Content Type | Report |
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A second agreement in Minsk on 12 February 2015 produced a ceasefire that for now is mostly holding and measures to de-escalate the conflict. Many officials locally and in Kyiv, Moscow and the West, nevertheless, believe war could resume in Ukraine’s east within weeks. If it does, much will depend on the quality of top commanders on both sides. Ukraine’s army is enmeshed in a command crisis the country’s leaders seem unwilling to admit or address. For the separatist rebels, the command and control Moscow provides could give them the advantage in any new fighting. Meanwhile, President Petro Poroshenko faces criticism from his Western allies about the slow pace of reform, opposition from the political establishment as he tries to pass legislation required by the Minsk agreement and a steady stream of complaints from Donetsk and Moscow that the measures do not go far enough. This briefing focuses on the negotiations leading to that agreement, the military balance and appetites for further confrontation on all sides, as well as likely scenarios for the immediate future. Crisis Group’s analysis of and policy recommendations on the strategic questions the crisis poses for European stability can be found in a simultaneously published statement. |
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| Source Link | https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/ukraine-crisis-risks-renewed-military-conflict-after-minsk-ii |
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| Countries / Regions | Russia, Ukraine |
