The Ukraine War and Food Security: Consequences for Norway’s Partner Countries

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is causing disruptions in global food supplies, with grave consequences for many developing countries. Both Ukraine and Russia are significant food exporters and major producers of fertiliser ingredients. However, the effects of the war will vary significantly between different countries. Some countries rely on supplies from Russia and Ukraine. Others are less dependent on food imports but depend on Russian and Ukrainian import of fertilisers. Yet others will mainly be affected by general global price increases, especially in the long-term perspective (within the next three years).

However, most of Norway’s partner countries are largely self-reliant in food. For them, the main problems caused by the war are the following:

• Increased prices for fertilizers
• Higher energy prices and higher interest rates
• Increased risk of political instability and conflict
• Cuts in aid

In this situation, Norway should do the following:

• Avoid cuts in aid to partner countries to fund support to Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees
• Increase food support to countries most affected by drought and conflict
• Support partner countries’ supply of fertilisers
• Consider debt relief to countries negatively affected by price increases on energy and higher interest rates.

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