The use of strategic foresight in Commission impact assessments

Summary:

Strategic foresight was identified as a political priority by the European Commission back in 2019, and was integrated into the EU's better regulation guidelines in 2021. It allows practitioners to anticipate alternative futures and, hence, represents a key tool for the EU to future-proof its policies and legislation. Its relevance spans the policy cycle, being of interest ex ante to impact assessments (IAs) and ex post to evaluations.

This briefing examines the use of strategic foresight by the Commission in its IAs. It analyses the practices that emerged between January 2020 and December 2023, allowing a comparison between the period prior to January 2022, when foresight became a better regulation tool, with the period since then. The analysis shows that, despite a progressive increase in the number of IAs featuring a foresight component, practices continue to vary greatly across the Commission Directorates-General responsible for these IAs, in terms of methodology, clarity and consistency. Nine of the 63 IAs analysed in this briefing were supported by dedicated studies using foresight methodology. The majority of these studies were conducted by the Joint Research Centre, the Commission's internal science and knowledge service, which provides a broad offer to assist the use of foresight, including training and research. Two studies were commissioned to external contractors. Foresight studies require time and resources. They should be systematically conducted when a foresight approach adds value to the examination of the topic at stake.

Foresight methods include the analysis of megatrends and scenario planning. The Commission's Regulatory Scrutiny Board (RSB) ensures quality control of the Commission's IA work. Besides advising on the IA process and expressing its opinion on the quality of each individual draft IA, it also gives an annual account of progress on better law-making. In its opinions, the RSB inter alia stressed the need for consistency in the use of foresight throughout IA reports, calling for foresight to be integrated into the sections on problem definition and policy options.

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