| Author (Person) | Barnes-Dacey, Julien |
|---|---|
| Publisher | European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) |
| Series Title | Policy Brief |
| Series Details | July 2016 |
| Publication Date | July 2016 |
| Content Type | Journal | Series | Blog, News |
|
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have so far been surprisingly resilient to the spillover from Syria’s civil war, in terms of refugees, terror, and domestic divisions. But now in 2016 the region’s fragile stability is hanging by a thread – with Turkey the most precarious of all. 'The war next door: Syria and the erosion of stability in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey', argues that European states should act fast to bolster stability in these three key states, or risk greater refugee flows and a heightened terror threat from the region. Turkey is being hit by the worst of the spillover from Syria, with a reignited internal conflict against the Kurds, an influx of 2.7m refugees, and a wave of deadly attacks in its territory – most recently last week’s ISIS bombing of Istanbul airport. At the same time, President Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism is creating greater tensions. In Lebanon, the delicate balancing act between rival political factions – who made a tacit agreement to freeze their struggle as the Syria crisis took hold – is wavering amid electricity and water shortages. Jordan’s appearance of calm hides a number of worrying signs, and the country’s main opposition party faces restrictions from the government. All three countries face an expanding terror threat as ISIS responds to losses in Syria and Iraq with an increased focus on the region as a whole. European member states should increase their support to these key countries. The UN aid package for Syria’s neighbours – the Syria Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan 2016 – is less than one-third funded. European financial support should be channelled not just into the immediate humanitarian response to the refugee crisis, but longer-term schemes to develop local economics and benefit host communities. This should be accompanied by intensified security cooperation and intelligence-sharing to thwart the ISIS threat, both to the region and to Europe. At the same time, it is vital for European governments to support the political consensus that holds these states together, preventing outright collapse. In Turkey, this means doing more to encourage government peace talks with the Kurds, including through dialogue between Ankara and Syrian Kurds. In Lebanon, Europe should press local and regional actors to step back from recent escalatory moves. These include possible Hezbollah involvement in the bombing of a local bank over its compliance with US sanctions against the group, and Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal of financial and political support from the country. In Jordan, King Abdullah should be encouraged to strengthen avenues of popular representation. In the end, a negotiated solution in Syria is the only path towards stability in the region. European states must not lose sight of that goal. |
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| Source Link | http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_182_-_THE_WAR_NEXT_DOOR_-_SYRIA_AND_THE_EROSION_OF_STABILITY_IN_JORDAN_LEBANON_AND_TURKEY.pdf |
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| Subject Categories | Justice and Home Affairs, Security and Defence |
| Countries / Regions | Eastern Europe, Europe, Middle East, Turkey |
