|Author (Person)||Varvelli, Arturo|
|Publisher||Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)|
|Series Title||ISPI Commentary|
|Series Details||February 2017|
|Content Type||Journal | Series | Blog|
During 2016 and in the first few weeks of 2017, it has become clear that General Khalifa Haftar is gaining support both locally and internationally. The international support, along with the Libyan population’s growing disillusionment in a UN-mediated solution to the conflict, allowed Haftar to shift from an ambiguous stance towards the UN-backed national unity government to a more hostile one. As of today, it seems that Haftar’s involvement in every negotiation on the future of the country has become unavoidable.
During the last year, a negotiation with Haftar has been proposed multiple times, at one condition: to accept a role within the UN-backed government while limiting his hegemonic ambitions over Libya. The events of the last few months of 2016 are making this option more and more remote, and the international circumstances are weakening the chance of success of such a mediation. The Libyan crisis has been more and more perceived by the international and regional powers like part and parcel of a bigger crisis. Diverging interests by conservative Arab countries, Egypt, the US, Europe, and Russia gave rise to contrasts and contradictions. The political set-up of the region remains crucial, and so the power balance amongst the main local powers – the very reflection of the interest invested in the region by the global powers.
Thus, the only possible way to solve the Libyan crisis is through a preliminary agreement between the most influential international and regional actors and the implementation of the concept of 'regional ownership,' as they are doing in Syria right now. This attempt to achieve 'broad agreements' could contribute to convincing every international actor that the process is in their best interest and foster a process of internal reconciliation.
|Subject Categories||Security and Defence|
|Countries / Regions||Eastern Europe, Europe, Northern Africa|