Time to cement EU-Sino ties

By Stanley Crossick

Date: 07/10/04

THE new generation of Chinese leaders led by Hu Jintao, which has recently consolidated its grip on power in Beijing, is keen to look towards the EU as an emerging strategic partner in foreign policy. This is in sharp contrast to the previous leadership, which was focused on the United States.

But although the Sino-European ties are in good shape, the Union does not appear to look sufficiently strategically on its relationship with a country that will become the world's foremost economic power.

Visitors to China are struck by the preoccupation of political leaders and opinion-formers with geopolitical considerations. The Chinese are renowned for taking long-term views.

There are several ongoing high-level EU-China dialogues but, so far, there has been no response to Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's call for an "all-round strategic partnership" in a "ten to 15-year perspective". This is disappointing in the light of China's increasing political leverage of its economic power. Chinese trade with south-east Asia is expected to exceed US trade with the region within a few years.

These factors have implications for Chinese energy requirements, Beijing's Taiwan policy and the development of a powerful regional and economic grouping, such as the proposed East Asia Community, in which China would be the dominant member.

There is a unique opportunity for the new European Commission, led by José Manuel Barroso, to develop jointly with the member states a comprehensive long-term strategy towards China. A mandate should be sought from the December EU-China summit in The Hague to negotiate a strategic agreement and to upgrade the meeting to the level of heads of state.

Beijing is likely to push its own demands in such negotiations, notably the lifting of the arms embargo and the granting of market-economy status. Taiwan is not a major issue as the EU is committed to a 'one-China' policy. There could, however, be problems if the result is a so-called mixed agreement, which would require ratification in member states. Some national parliaments would certainly raise human rights questions that could be embarrassing for the Chinese.

The time, however, is never likely to be more opportune. Political and trade relations are good and the two sides share concern over the unilateral direction of US foreign policy and its effect on global stability and governance.

Clear short-, medium- and long-term aims should be agreed together with an implementation plan. With the increased interaction between different policy areas, the 100 Commission officials now working part-time or full-time on China need greater coordination.

A small, high-level 'committee of understanding' should be set up, composed of political, business, think-tank and civil society leaders. Its task would be to encourage and help coordinate strategy between all the stakeholders.

Jean Monnet unsuccessfully lobbied, in the early 1960s, for a transatlantic committee of understanding, arguing that such a critical relationship needed ongoing nurturing with special attention paid at all times and not only when there are difficulties.

This idea will be raised at the EU-China think-tank roundtable, which will take place just before the December summit.

A close Sino-European relationship should not be promoted at the expense of the United States.

However, American influence in China and in Asia generally has waned since 2002 and US policies on nuclear proliferation (in North Korea and Iran) have strained relations with this part of the world.

There are no indications that China will seek to match US military supremacy. The key to regional stability is that China neither feels threatened nor threatens. While the Taiwan issue is worrisome, Beijing is most unlikely to have fixed a time-limit for reunification. There appears to be no likelihood that the present leadership will seek a military solution. In the absence of Taiwanese provocation, the only risk is that war accidentally breaks out across the straits, which is not unimaginable. It would be catastrophic if this were to happen and the US felt compelled to go to Taiwan's defence.

Chinese leaders fully understand that economic liberalization inevitably leads to democratization. What matters is the speed and method of democratization.

The EU and China have several priorities from which to choose, with cooperation on energy, regional policy and education at the top of the list.

First, it is in everyone's interests that China diversifies its dependency on oil and that there be closer cooperation in building strategic oil reserves.

Second, China has huge regional imbalances and could benefit from an in-depth analysis of the successes and failures of EU regional policy and their relevance to China.

Finally, an unsung Sino-European success is the China-Europe International Business School in Shanghai, which has established a first-class international reputation in little more than a decade. Its EU funding ends next year and should then be used to help establish an EU-China Law School. Application of the rule of law (including respect for human rights) is critical to China's future. Such a school could make a substantial contribution in this regard.

Next year will mark the 30th anniversary of the start of diplomatic relations between the EU and China. The next summit should be the occasion to sign a strategic agreement and cement the relationship.

• Stanley Crossick, founding chairman of the European Policy Centre, writes in a personal capacity.

The new generation of Chinese leaders led by Hu Jintao, which has recently consolidated its grip on power in Beijing, is keen to look towards the EU as an emerging strategic partner in foreign policy. This is in sharp contrast to the previous leadership, which was focused on the United States, article reports.

• Primary Source