|Author (Person)||Alexandri, Eva, Lewney, Richard, Pérez, José-Ignacio Antón, Storrie, Donald|
|Author (Corporate)||European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound)|
|Publisher||Publications Office of the European Union|
|Series Title||Eurofound Research Reports|
|Publication Date||March 2019|
Protectionism is on the rise. This scenario estimates the potential impact of a significant increase in tariffs in the world’s major trading blocs.
The analysis is carried out using the E3ME macroeconometric model, which provides information on sectoral impacts, together with the Warwick Labor Market Extension model for occupational analysis. Further analysis of the employment developments in Europe is undertaken using Eurofound's European Jobs Monitor.
As predicted by economic theory, tariffs do impact negatively on both GDP and employment. The most negative impact is in the blocs that have a trade surplus. The EU-wide decline in GDP translates to a 0.3% fall in employment in the EU28 by 2030 compared to the baseline.
|Subject Categories||Employment and Social Affairs, Trade|
|Subject Tags||Industrial Policy, Labour Market|
|International Organisations||European Union [EU]|