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Abstract:
In 1999, Barry Buzan and the author used Regional Security Complex Theory to argue that Turkey and the European Union should look for alternatives to full Turkish EU membership. This was based on the security stability that Turkey as an insulator in the international system would provide; on the argument that there was a conflation of westernization and Europeanization in Turkey that served to suppress civil society actors; and on the increasing differentiation of the EU. This article reviews the validity of this argument in the light of the changes that have taken place since 1999 in both Turkey and in the EU, including the constitutional and legal changes and the rise of the Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) to power in Turkey, and the 2004 enlargement and the agreement of a constitutional treaty in the EU. It is argued that in the light of these developments, the proposals Buzan and the author presented in 1999 were mistaken. The EU should pursue the course of EU membership, as the perspective of such membership is better suited to provide stability and to strengthen civil society actors in Turkey. However, it is also contested that there will be increasing differentiation within the EU, which will affect what the full membership of Turkey actually means.
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