| Author (Person) | Iwanski, Tadeusz, Olszanski, Tadeusz A. |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) |
| Series Title | OSW Analyses |
| Series Details | 30.12.16 |
| Publication Date | 30/12/2015 |
| Content Type | Journal | Series | Blog |
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Following a lengthy dispute, on 25 December 2015, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) passed the budget law for 2016. 263 deputies voted in favour of the law (the required majority is 226), including 200 members of the government coalition, with the other votes in favour being cast by opposition groupings. The vote proved that the government had no stable majority in parliament, and a snap election was becoming ever more likely. The fact that Mikheil Saakashvili (most likely in agreement with President Petro Poroshenko) was building his own political movement could be seen as preparation for the snap election. On the other hand, the factions controlled by oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who had an uneasy relationship with the president, voted in favour of the budget. This could be seen as an offer to bury the hatchet and to form an informal coalition in parliament in an attempt to delay the snap election. Almost all the major political players in Ukraine feared this scenario. Some of them were aware of the fact that the situation may deteriorate so much that the snap election would become inevitable in autumn 2016. Despite the increasingly worrying tension inside the coalition, the government managed to fulfil the minimum plan for reforming the Ukrainian economy, including to slow down the downward trend. The fact that the military situation in the Donbass calmed down also contributed to macroeconomic stabilisation. Although slight economic growth was expected in 2016, Ukraine’s very difficult financial and social situation, including the need to implement the austerity policy imposed by the IMF, would further deepen the internal political dispute. |
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| Source Link | http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2015-12-30/ukrainian-politics-end-2015-unstable-equilibrium |
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| Countries / Regions | Ukraine |
