What do local election results tell us about parties’ prospects in the 2015 UK general election?

The next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015 In this post, Tony Travers uses historical data from local elections to analyse the chances of a Labour party victory in 2015. Mirroring the general message from most current forecasting models, he finds that Labour are some way off the level that has been historically necessary for opposition parties to win a majority.

• Primary Source

EurActiv, 26.01.15: UKIP says could back Cameron after election http://www.euractiv.com/sections/uk-europe/ukip-says-could-back-cameron-after-election-311545

---