What if … Conceivable crises: unpredictable in 2017, unmanageable in 2020?

In a world increasingly shaped by unexpected events and developments – ranging from ‘strategic surprises’ like 9/11 or the Arab Spring to the unintended consequences of often well-meant decisions – trying to imagine contingencies that challenge current assumptions may well prove a useful exercise.

This Report presents a number of grey swan scenarios which are designed to help decision-makers think about possible responses to crises and how they can be prevented. They cover a wide variety of geographical and operational situations while never explicitly calling into question specific EU actions or policies – only general EU principles and interests.

EUISS: Conference, 18.02.18: 2018 Munich Security Conference – ‘What If…’ Designing Crisis Response in an EU Context https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/2018-munich-security-conference-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%98what-if%E2%80%A6%E2%80%99-designing-crisis-response-eu-context

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