| Author (Person) | Persson, Mats |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Open Europe |
| Series Title | Report |
| Series Details | No 3/2015 (23.03.15) |
| Publication Date | 23/03/2015 |
| Content Type | Report |
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According to Open Europe's new report published on the 23 March 2015, UK GDP could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain left the EU and failed to strike a deal with the EU or reverts into protectionism. In a best case scenario, under which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, whilst pursuing large-scale deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP in 2030. However, a far more realistic range would be between a 0.8% permanent loss to GDP in 2030 and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030, in scenarios where Britain mixed policy approaches. In the study, Open Europe primarily examined the economic impact of Britain leaving the EU. However, given that Brexit comes down to a finely balanced calculation, unquantifiable considerations such as lost sovereignty and democratic accountability may be what in the end determines whether Britain remained a member. Open Europe’s study drew on detailed economic modelling, showing that the economic impact of Brexit was not as clear cut in either direction as most previous analyses have suggested. Instead it would depend on a number of tough decisions in the UK and Europe. This included whether the EU itself would embrace reform and British politicians and voters were willing to accept ambitious deregulation and new levels of competition through expansion of free trade. |
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| Source Link | http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/ |
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| Countries / Regions | United Kingdom |
