What impact will Brexit have on the Welsh economy?

Author (Corporate)
Series Title
Series Details 13.04.18
Publication Date 13/04/2018
Content Type

Professor Nicholas Perdikis of Aberystwyth University carried out a fellowship with the National Assembly for Wales in the spring of 2018, looking – along with co-author Professor Khorana of Bournemouth University – at the likely economic impact of Brexit on Wales.

This followed the Welsh Government’s publication of its Brexit trade policy, underpinned by work it had commissioned from the Welsh Economy Research Unit at Cardiff Business School (EU Transition and Economic Prospects for Large and Medium Sized Firms in Wales). These documents gave an indication of the scale of the impact Brexit might have in Wales, and which sectors would be most affected.

The conclusions are that 'The scenario simulations reveal that Brexit will lead to the imposition of costs, either through the imposition of tariffs or the loss of preferential access to the single market. The impact on the Welsh economy will be felt via reductions in GDP, GDP per capita, trade, investment and employment. The least costly outcome for Wales is if the status quo can be held to for as long as possible. The next best or next least worst is the conclusion of a CETA type agreement by the EU. The most costly is a Brexit based on WTO rules'.

Source Link https://seneddresearch.blog/2018/04/13/what-impact-will-brexit-have-on-the-welsh-economy/
Related Links
ESO: Find more information on Wales and the EU Referendum, 23 June 2016 http://www.europeansources.info/advSearchLink?keyword=brexit%20wales%20&searchOption=all
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/
Wales: Welsh Government: Report, February 2018: Trade Policy: the issues for Wales. Securing Wales’ Future (et al) http://www.europeansources.info/record/trade-policy-the-issues-for-wales-securing-wales-future/
Welsh Brexit, 11.12.17: Brexit and the Welsh Economy http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-and-the-welsh-economy/

Countries / Regions