Article 50 negotiations: Implications of ‘no deal’

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the United Kingdom House of Commons issued a report Article 50 negotiations: Implications of ‘no deal on the 12 March 2017.

The Committees reported that even with all sides entering negotiations with goodwill and the desire for a successful outcome, that negotiations could stall or be derailed and the two years could end with no deal between the UK and the 27 Member States.

By the end of March 2017, the UK would tender the official notification to the EU of its intention to leave. The two year negotiating period would be short, complex and challenging.

The FAC Report was the first Select Committee Report to focus specifically on the implications of 'no deal' for the UK with reference to a range of different sectors, policy areas and circumstances.

The consequences of 'no deal'
The consequences of ‘no deal’ are far from being what the Brexit Secretary called 'an exercise in guesswork'. On the contrary, the evidence published in the report made the scope of those consequences clear.

The full potential implications of 'no deal', explored in detail in the annexes to the report, included:

+ Ongoing disputes over the exit 'bill'
+ Uncertainty and confusion for UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK
+ Trading on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms
+ A 'regulatory gap' and legal uncertainty in areas not covered by the 'Great Repeal Bill'
+ Uncertainty over UK participation in the EU's common foreign and security policy
+ The sudden return of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Separately, The Independent published on the 12 March 2017 what it called a leak of an unpublished HM Treasury report which warned of painful 'economic shock' if the UK crashed out of the EU without a deal.

• Primary Source

European Parliament: European Parliamentary Research Service: Briefing, 2016: Article 50 TEU: Withdrawal of a Member State from the EU http://www.europeansources.info/record/article-50-teu-withdrawal-of-a-member-state-from-the-eu/

UK: Parliament: Committees: News, 12.03.17: Article 50: 'Dereliction of duty' to fail to plan for 'no deal' http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/foreign-affairs-committee/news-parliament-2015/article-50-report-publication-16-17/

ESO: Background information: European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill: Government vows to overturn EU citizens vote following Lords defeat http://www.europeansources.info/record/european-union-notification-of-withdrawal-bill-lords-urge-tories-to-back-brexit-bill-amendment-on-eu-citizens-uk-lords-demand-power-to-reject-final-brexit-terms-parliament-passes-brexit-bill-a/

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Background information: Views from the Capitals: Europe prepares for Article 50 http://www.europeansources.info/record/views-from-the-capitals-europe-prepares-for-article-50/

The Independent, 12.03.17: Leaked Treasury report warns of painful 'economic shock' if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-treasury-fears-leaked-document-article-50-theresa-may-eu-referendum-exclusive-a7624706.html

BBC News, 12.03.17: David Davis urges MPs 'not to tie PM's hands' over Brexit bill http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39245298

The Guardian, 12.03.17: MPs slam Theresa May over lack of a plan if Brexit talks collapse https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/11/brexit-trigger-article-50-theresa

Blog: UK Constitutional Law Association, 24.03.17: Christina Lienen: Why the Implications of ‘No Deal’ Are No Mere ‘Exercise in Guesswork’ https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2017/03/24/christina-lienen-why-the-implications-of-no-deal-are-no-mere-exercise-in-guesswork/

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