Beyond European Strategic Autonomy?

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Series Details Number 145
Publication Date August/September 2022
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The external pressure on Europeans to take defence more seriously is unlikely to decrease. On the one hand, Russia’s invasion will exacerbate challenges for Euro-Atlantic security well beyond Eastern Europe, with potential food shortages and economic challenges in much of Europe’s neighbourhood. On the other, the war has not undermined Washington’s bipartisan wish to focus on countering China’s rise. If Trump or another ‘America-first’ Republican became president in 2025, America’s commitment to European security could not be taken for granted, and US foreign policy could often clash with that of many EU members, undermining European security. Regardless of the outcome of the next US election, the US is likely to devote fewer resources to European security in the future, and to demand that Europeans take up a larger share of the burden of deterring Russia and stabilising their own neighbourhood. Europeans would be wise to prepare for that now.

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Clingendael Policy Briefs: Feb. 2022: Phoenix or Icarus? European strategic autonomy in light of Ukraine
EPC Commentary: 04/07/2022: Time for Europe to stop hitting the security snooze button
Council of the EU: 7371/22: A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence

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