EUISS Chaillot Paper No. 157 (January 2020)

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Series Details Number 157
Publication Date January 2020
ISBN 978-92-9198-858-7
ISSN 1683-4917
EC QN-AA-19-007-EN-N
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What If... ? 14 Futures for 2024


According to a famous science fiction film, the future is what you make of it. This Chaillot Paper takes this quote from Back to the Future to heart, proposing 14 different portraits of the future for the year 2024.

These are not ‘Grey Swans’ we want to avoid – on the contrary, they are ‘White Reindeers’, positive developments we can make come true. The scenarios do not just depict a desirable future, but include pathways and concrete recommendations on how to get there. The scenarios outlined here therefore amount to more than strategic foresight since they are highly operational; in addition, they describe futures that are just beginning in 2024, but which will have wide-ranging positive repercussions in the decades beyond that date.

Table of Contents:

  • Introduction
  • Innovate
    • What if... we avoided wordplay with China? | Alice Ekman
    • What if... the EU developed a more strategic CSDP? | Daniel Fiott
    • What if... the EU launched its first civilian cyber mission? | Patryk Pawlak
    • What if... Europe created an international social/news platform? | Nathalie van Raemdonck
  • Reform
    • What if... the MENA switched to solar power? | Florence Gaub
    • What if... a revoluton led to democratisation? | Katariina Mustasilta
    • What if... Russian citizens could travel visa-free in Europe? | Sinikukka Saari
    • What if... the Eastern Partners joined 'Money Schengen'? | Stanislav Secrieru
    • What if... the EU and the US launched a Partnership to Defend Democracy? | Simona R. Soare
  • Protect
    • What if... Burkina Faso defeated violent extremism? | Giovanni Faleg
    • What if... a country restricted access to rare earth elements? | Gustav Lindstrom
    • What if... cities became diplomats? | Roderick Parkes
    • What if... the EU made sanctions compatible with humanitarian aid? | Clara Portela
    • What if... Pakistan became resistant to instability in Afghanistan? | John-Joseph Wilkins
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