FORECAST SERIES: Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine (Part 2)

Putin's military Options

Summary:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a large force near the Ukrainian border and reportedly has a military plan to invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine. Western leaders are rightly taking the threat of such an invasion very seriously, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that Putin will order his military to execute it. However, the close look at what such an invasion would entail presented in this report and the risks and costs Putin would have to accept in ordering it leads us to forecast that he is very unlikely to launch an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine this winter. Putin is much more likely to send Russian forces into Belarus and possibly overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas. He might launch a limited incursion into unoccupied southeastern Ukraine that falls short of a full-scale invasion.

A full-scale Russian invasion of unoccupied Ukraine would be by far the largest, boldest, and riskiest military operation Moscow has launched since the 1979 inva­sion of Afghanistan. It would be far more complex than the US wars against Iraq in 1991 or 2003. It would be a marked departure from the approaches Putin has relied on since 2015, and a major step-change in his willing­ness to use Russian conventional military power overtly. It would cost Russia enormous sums of money and likely many thousands of casualties and destroyed vehicles and aircraft. Even in victory, such an invasion would impose on Russian President Vladimir Putin the requirement to reconstruct Ukraine and then establish a new government and security forces there more suitable for his objectives.

Putin is trying to panic the West into surrendering important principles and accepting Russian actions that would damage Western interests and security severely but would seem less dangerous when compared to the massive threat Putin is presenting to Ukraine. Western leaders must avoid becoming mes­merized by the threat of a Russian invasion while cajoling Putin to de-escalate the crisis he has created.

• Primary Source

• Alternative Source

ESO Records

AEI: Forecast Series, 2022: Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine (Part 1) https://www.europeansources.info/record/forecast-series-putins-likely-course-of-action-in-ukraine-part-1/

AEI: Forecast Series, 2022: Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine (Part 3) https://www.europeansources.info/record/forecast-series-putins-likely-course-of-action-in-ukraine-part-3/

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