Author (Person) | Barros, George, Bugayova, Nataliya, Clark, Mason, Kagan, Frederick W., Stepanenko, Kateryna |
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Author (Corporate) | American Enterprise Institute, Institute for the Study of War |
Publisher | American Enterprise Institute, Institute for the Study of War |
Series Title | AEI Forecast Series |
Publication Date | December 2021 |
Content Type | Report |
Putin's military OptionsSummary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a large force near the Ukrainian border and reportedly has a military plan to invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine. Western leaders are rightly taking the threat of such an invasion very seriously, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that Putin will order his military to execute it. However, the close look at what such an invasion would entail presented in this report and the risks and costs Putin would have to accept in ordering it leads us to forecast that he is very unlikely to launch an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine this winter. Putin is much more likely to send Russian forces into Belarus and possibly overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas. He might launch a limited incursion into unoccupied southeastern Ukraine that falls short of a full-scale invasion. A full-scale Russian invasion of unoccupied Ukraine would be by far the largest, boldest, and riskiest military operation Moscow has launched since the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. It would be far more complex than the US wars against Iraq in 1991 or 2003. It would be a marked departure from the approaches Putin has relied on since 2015, and a major step-change in his willingness to use Russian conventional military power overtly. It would cost Russia enormous sums of money and likely many thousands of casualties and destroyed vehicles and aircraft. Even in victory, such an invasion would impose on Russian President Vladimir Putin the requirement to reconstruct Ukraine and then establish a new government and security forces there more suitable for his objectives. Putin is trying to panic the West into surrendering important principles and accepting Russian actions that would damage Western interests and security severely but would seem less dangerous when compared to the massive threat Putin is presenting to Ukraine. Western leaders must avoid becoming mesmerized by the threat of a Russian invasion while cajoling Putin to de-escalate the crisis he has created. |
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Source Link |
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/putins-likely-course-of-action-in-ukraine-part-2/
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Subject Categories | Security and Defence |
Subject Tags | Wars | Conflicts |
Keywords | War in Ukraine (2022-) |
Countries / Regions | Belarus, Russia, Ukraine |