Author (Person) | Barros, George, Clark, Mason, Kagan, Frederick W., Stepanenko, Kateryna |
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Author (Corporate) | American Enterprise Institute, Institute for the Study of War |
Publisher | American Enterprise Institute, Institute for the Study of War |
Series Title | AEI Forecast Series |
Publication Date | January 2022 |
Content Type | Report |
Updated Course of Action AssessmentSummary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the crisis he created by mobilizing a large military force around Ukraine to achieve two major objectives: first, advancing and possibly completing his efforts to regain effective control of Ukraine itself, and second, fragmenting and neutralizing the NATO alliance. Russian military preparations can support a massive invasion of Ukraine from the north, east, and south that could give Putin physical control of Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, allowing him to dictate terms that would accomplish the first objective. Such an invasion, however, might undermine his efforts to achieve the second objective because it could rally the NATO alliance around the need to respond to such a dramatic act of aggression. An invasion would also entail significant risks and definite high costs. A Russian military action centered around limited military operations in southern and southeastern Ukraine coupled with a brief but widespread and intense air and missile campaign could better position Putin to achieve both aims as well as reduce the likely costs and risks to Russia. Current Forecast based on this analysis:
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Source Link |
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/putins-likely-course-of-action-in-ukraine-part-3/
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Subject Categories | Security and Defence |
Subject Tags | European defence / NATO, Wars | Conflicts |
Keywords | War in Ukraine (2022-) |
Countries / Regions | Belarus, Russia, Ukraine |