FORECAST SERIES: Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine (Part 3)

Updated Course of Action Assessment

Summary:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the crisis he created by mobilizing a large military force around Ukraine to achieve two major objectives: first, advancing and possibly completing his efforts to regain effective control of Ukraine itself, and second, fragmenting and neutralizing the NATO alliance.

Russian military preparations can support a massive invasion of Ukraine from the north, east, and south that could give Putin physical control of Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, allowing him to dictate terms that would accomplish the first objective. Such an invasion, however, might undermine his efforts to achieve the second objective because it could rally the NATO alliance around the need to respond to such a dramatic act of aggression. An invasion would also entail significant risks and definite high costs.

A Russian military action centered around limited military operations in southern and southeastern Ukraine coupled with a brief but widespread and intense air and missile campaign could better position Putin to achieve both aims as well as reduce the likely costs and risks to Russia.

Current Forecast based on this analysis:

• Russia will not conduct a full mechanized invasion to conquer all of Ukraine this winter (unchanged).
• Russian mechanized forces will overtly deploy into occupied Donbas on a large scale by mid-February (increased likelihood).
• Russia may launch an air and missile campaign throughout unoccupied Ukraine in conjunction with an overt deployment into occupied Donbas (newly identified course of action).
• Russia may conduct limited ground incursions north and west from occupied Donbas and/or north from Crimea.

• Primary Source

• Alternative Source

ESO Records

AEI: Forecast Series, 2022: Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine (Part 1) https://www.europeansources.info/record/forecast-series-putins-likely-course-of-action-in-ukraine-part-1/

AEI: Forecast Series, 2022: Putin’s likely course of action in Ukraine (Part 2) https://www.europeansources.info/record/forecast-series-putins-likely-course-of-action-in-ukraine-part-2/

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