| Author (Corporate) | European Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
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| Series Title | Press Release |
| Series Details | 14.05.14 |
| Publication Date | 14/05/2014 |
| Content Type | News |
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The crisis in Russia and Ukraine in 2014 was having a severe impact on the economies of the two countries and threatened to slow down the recovery in the wider EBRD region – or even bring it to a complete halt. The EBRD’s economic report of May 2014 predicted growth in the transition region of just 1.4% in 2014, a sharp reduction from the rate of 2.7% forecast in January 2014. A modest upturn of 1.9% in 2015 was possible, but was only achievable if the crisis did not escalate. Under the EBRD’s most likely scenario, Ukraine would return to recession in 2014, with a contraction of 7% and show no growth in 2015. The Russian economy would stagnate in 2014 and show only minimal growth in 2015. The countries of central Europe and the Baltics (CEB) were enjoying an improvement in their outlook thanks to a stronger recovery in the eurozone and improving domestic demand. Nevertheless, the outlook was being dampened by the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its impact. The three Baltic states’ trade and investment linkages to Russia and Ukraine was significant, and financial contagion might deepen. Several central European countries were also dependent on Russia’s gas and oil. Greater risk aversion in bank and bond market funding was more likely to present a downside risk to growth in 2014. |
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| Source Link | http://www.ebrd.com/news/2014/russia-ukraine-crisis-threatens-recovery-in-ebrd-region.html |
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| Countries / Regions | Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine |
