Public opinion and enlargement: A gravity approach

Abstract:

Popular support for enlargement of the European Union is a function of how close or how far removed the Member States are from the candidate countries. In the absence of country fixed effects or special bilateral relationships (e.g. adjacency, historic rivalry, religious conformity), we can explain approximately 14% of the variation in attitudes across Member States and with regard to specific candidate countries using factors related to trade, distance, and relative economic size and structure. Taking special bilateral relations into account we can explain approximately 30%. Once country fixed effects are incorporated, the level of explanation increases to 80%.

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